Civil-military dynamic will fuel Myanmar’s crisis

Significance

The military continues to crack down heavily on anti-coup protesters. Its leaders have long regarded civil society as a threat to Myanmar’s unity and security.

Impacts

• Naypyidaw will draw closer to Moscow and Beijing as the junta looks for external backing.
• Russia and China will block any attempts by the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Myanmar.
• Beijing will step up military support for the junta if the latter’s conflicts with ethnically based insurgents in border areas intensify.