Myanmar military will count on Russian support

Significance

Unlike most Western powers, Russia has refused to condemn the February 1 coup in which the Myanmar army ousted the country’s democratically elected civilian government. Russia’s main interest in South-east Asia is selling military hardware.

Impacts

• As Western governments impose more sanctions on Myanmar's military, Russia will seek a larger role in the country’s oil and gas industry.
• China will be Myanmar’s largest trade and investment partner in the medium term.
• ASEAN’s inability to convince Myanmar’s coup leaders to reverse course will hurt the organisation’s international credibility.