Brazil's Bolsonaro will become increasingly isolated

Significance

The moves raised concerns that Bolsonaro was preparing the ground for a new coup as he faced growing criticism of his mishandling of the pandemic and the economic and social crises it has caused.

Impacts

• Legal decisions facilitating a run by former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in 2022 create a strong centre-left rival for Bolsonaro.
• It is increasingly likely that the centre-right will seek to present a candidate who unites its different sectors.
• A run-off between Lula and a centre-right candidate, after Bolsonaro is defeated in the first round, looks increasingly possible.
• In the shorter term, Bolsonaro’s growing isolation will strengthen the hand of the ‘Centrao’ grouping in Congress.