ASEAN will be weakened by internal strains

Significance

This year, it plans to hold its 38th and 39th summits back-to-back on October 26-28. The decision to postpone the first meeting is likely a response to internal strains. The bloc is struggling to deal with the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, increased jockeying among the region's powers and the fallout of the February 1 coup in Myanmar.

Impacts

• Subregional initiatives such as the US-Mekong Partnership and the China-led Lancang-Mekong Cooperation mechanism will become more prominent.
• China will push to elevate the ASEAN-China strategic partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership.
• With several small states in line to chair ASEAN, some of the bloc's larger members such as Indonesia will assume informal leadership roles.