Myanmar will ignore West and push on towards new polls

Significance

The army detained Suu Kyi and other National League for Democracy (NLD) officials on February 1, claiming fraud in the November 8 general election in which the NLD increased its parliamentary majority. It has declared a one-year state of emergency and promises to hold fresh polls thereafter.

Impacts

• The coup will slow the progress of the peace process designed to end conflicts between the military and ethnically based armed groups.
• Naypyidaw is even less likely than before to cooperate with Dhaka over repatriating Rohingya refugees residing in Bangladeshi camps.
• Public opposition to the military regime will spike if the authorities fail to maintain a downward trend in COVID-19 infections.