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Moroccan ‘wins’ over Western Sahara come with risks

Content type:: Expert Briefings
Location:: MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA
Keywords associated with this article:: Geographic: Morocco Western Sahara ME/NAF United States Israel United Nations MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA

Topical: international relations politics border conflict government security economy industry foreign policy guerrillas foreign investment infrastructure military natural resources peacekeeping protest referendum road
ISSN:: 2633-304X
Citation:: Oxford Analytica (2020), "Moroccan ‘wins’ over Western Sahara come with risks", Expert Briefings.
https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB258440

Thursday, December 24, 2020

Significance

President Donald Trump announced on December 10 that Washington would recognise Rabat’s claims over Western Sahara (the UN considers it a non-self-governing territory) in exchange for Moroccan commitments to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. The US move comes at an already tense period in Western Sahara, where a 29-year-old ceasefire between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front broke down last month.

Impacts

President-elect Joe Biden will struggle to reverse Trump’s actions without alienating Morocco, a key US partner.
Rabat will downplay the component of the deal regarding relations with Israel, and will crack down on domestic criticism on this issue.
Concurrent US efforts to build deeper security ties with Algeria, the Polisario Front’s main external backer, will be undermined.

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Significance

Impacts

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