Morocco will position for control of Western Sahara

Significance

The self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) withdrew from the 1991 ceasefire after Morocco carried out military operations in the buffer zone in Western Sahara. Moroccan authorities said they launched the operations following “provocations” and “banditry” by the Polisario Front, which blocked a border crossing.

Impacts

• There is further potential for escalation; protests in Laayoune in 2019 elicited a harsh Moroccan crackdown.
• The current round of conflict is moving Morocco even closer to the Gulf states, particularly the United Arab Emirates, and to Jordan.
• Morocco may ultimately seek to obtain international acceptance of its claim to the Western Sahara as the price of its recognition of Israel.