Middle East powers may ally against Turkey

Significance

The move reflects Turkey's failure to contain advances by the Moscow-backed Damascus government. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has engaged in multiple military adventures in the Middle East, accompanied by grandiose rhetoric at home. However, there is growing pushback from a range of regional powers.

Impacts

• Foreign investor worries over Turkey’s accumulation of geopolitical risk will keep the lira weak.
• Erdogan will further leverage his anti-Western rhetoric and policies to gain popularity in Sunni Muslim states beyond the Middle East.
• Erdogan’s intensifying clash with French President Emmanuel Macron could worsen tensions in regional theatres including Lebanon and Libya.