Ruling party will win Myanmar poll but emerge weaker

Significance

Voters will be electing lawmakers for regional and state legislatures as well as parliament’s upper and lower houses. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which is defending majorities in both houses, faces a tough challenge from several ethnically based parties.

Impacts

• As the polls draw closer, some populist parties may try to use social media to stoke ultra-nationalist, anti-Muslim sentiment.
• Doubts among external critics about the fairness of the elections will do further harm to Myanmar’s already damaged reputation.
• Ethnic parties will try harder to push their agendas in parliament, having lost confidence in the NLD’s ability to advance their interests.