Thai military will try to avoid launching a coup

Significance

Beyond calling for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s resignation, protesters have been challenging the military’s influence on politics and demanding reform of the monarchy. King Maha Vajiralongkorn and the army chief, Narongpan Jitkaewthae, have been silent on the protests since the decree was issued, while the police chief, Suwat Changyodsuk, has effectively been acting as a spokesman for the government.

Impacts

• Continuing protests could set back plans to revive the tourism sector following its pandemic-related shutdown.
• Thai communities abroad will step up protest activity in solidarity with demonstrators in Thailand.
• Prayut will try to strengthen his governing coalition by encouraging defections from opposition parties.