Turkey's foreign policy will increase its isolation

Significance

However, it has sometimes combined a very confrontational public relationship, including public attacks on an international institution, with a much more cooperative private relationship.

Impacts

• Erdogan does not say so publicly but would probably like one UNSC permanent member to be a Muslim country and that country to be Turkey.
• Erdogan is polling particularly badly among young people, around 1 million of whom become eligible to vote each year.
• Refugees are used for political patronage: companies close to the AKP are contracted to build refugee camps in Turkey and supply food.