Israeli-Emirati deal only formalises existing reality

Significance

The agreement provides US President Donald Trump a signature foreign policy achievement ahead of US elections in November, while giving Abu Dhabi an opportunity to cement ties with Washington in case of a change of president. It also constitutes a major diplomatic victory for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, amid rising domestic woes.

Impacts

• Some other Arab states such as Bahrain or Oman might follow the UAE’s lead.
• Saudi Arabia is likely to be more cautious, especially as it is preoccupied with internal succession dynamics.
• European countries will call for the suspension of annexation to be made permanent and Israel to return to talks with the Palestinians.