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Prospects for Afghanistan to end-2020

Monday, June 22, 2020

Subject

Prospects for Afghanistan to end-2020.

Significance

Progress on the related tracks of peace negotiations, US troop withdrawals and Afghan government cohesion will shape developments to the end of 2020, while questions about the health of Taliban leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada are an added factor for uncertainty. All these tracks are at risk of being derailed, despite recent positive developments such as an end-of-Ramadan ceasefire and a reduction of violence in the weeks since. President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani appears to buying time in the hope that a Democratic US president will be elected in November.

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