Nigerian security promises will fail to convince

Subject

Nigerian north-eastern insecurity.

Significance

A renewed round of high-profile attacks by the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and the Abubakar Shekau-led Boko Haram faction in the north-east are raising new questions about the long-term security strategy of President Muhammadu Buhari’s government. Pressure has grown on Abuja to act, including calls in the National Assembly for military leadership changes and greater local control of security strategy. Meanwhile, a controversial proposal to speed up the release and reintegration of suspected former fighters, and an apparent leadership tussle within ISWAP, have created new political controversies and uncertainty.

Impacts

• Criticism of its security strategy adds to the pressures on Abuja, reeling from a recent US immigration ban and its first COVID-19 cases.
• A spate of attacks on civilians and roads across Borno suggests that Abuja's ‘super camp’ strategy has given insurgents significant leeway.
• The increasing vulnerability of aid workers and humanitarian hubs in the north-east will pose a continued threat to civilian lives.