Russia will continue cautious covert action in Balkans

Subject

Russian espionage in the Balkans.

Significance

Spy scandals have rocked Bulgaria in recent months and have already led to the expulsion of three Russian diplomats. Moscow sees South-eastern Europe as a weak spot in the Western alliance. Scrutinised by the West, the government in Sofia is under pressure to take a tougher stand on Moscow’s influence in the country.

Impacts

• The new Bulgarian prosecutor general’s anti-graft campaign will exclude the energy sector, where Russia’s clout is extensive.
• It is the United States, not the EU, that will lead the pushback against Russian influence.
• The spy scandals are unlikely to cause irreparable damage to Russia’s interests in South-eastern Europe.