Gabonese government will emphasise Bongo's recovery

Subject

Gabonese elite upheaval.

Significance

Foreign Affairs Minister Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze on January 24 gave a 30-day ultimatum for all holders of diplomatic and service passports to return them, failing which they will be forcefully taken from them. The announcement is the latest part of the government’s crackdown against senior public officials and politicians who have fallen out of favour with President Ali Bongo’s administration. A key former presidential aide, Brice Laccruche Alihanga, and several former ministers are currently awaiting trial as the president, recovering from a stroke in 2018, looks to regain control.

Impacts

• A successful military coup to remove Bongo appears unlikely in the short term given the army’s continuing loyalty.
• Public-sector strikes will intensify if planned labour legislation reforms go ahead.
• A first reported piracy attack in Gabonese waters will raise fears of a spread of the Gulf of Guinea threat.
• The authorities may ultimately opt not to try Laccruche for fear that he may make embarrassing revelations about Bongo’s inner circle.