Myanmar armed groups eye leverage through 2020 poll

Subject

Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations.

Significance

The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense.

Impacts

• Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced.
• Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy.
• China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.