German coalition will be weaker following SPD election

Subject

New SPD leadership.

Significance

On December 6, members of the co-ruling Social Democrats (SPD) elected Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans as their new leaders. Both are sceptical of the grand coalition with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and could bring about its dissolution. While a motion to leave the government was rejected at the SPD’s party congress on December 6-8, the new leaders want to shift policy to the left and renegotiate the coalition pact with the CDU.

Impacts

• The SPD’s shift to the left increases its chances of winning back voters who supported extremes on the left and right in recent elections.
• The new leadership won a narrow victory on low turnout, which might diminish the leadership’s internal legitimacy.
• Increasing confrontation between the SPD and CDU could see the support of both parties rise in the polls.
• The Greens would be reluctant to join a CDU-led coalition if the SPD leaves government, fearing that this would damage its election hopes.