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Elections will weigh on Ivory Coast’s reform momentum

Friday, November 15, 2019

Subject

Ivorian economic fragility.

Significance

The uncertainty and intense political competition surrounding the 2020 elections risks fuelling populist pressures on President Alassane Ouattara’s administration. While his government will not reverse course on the broad thrust of its economic agenda, the pace and scope of pro-business reforms risk being curtailed.

Impacts

  • The government will be vulnerable to more strikes by civil servants and military mutinies, having previously succumbed to these pressures.
  • The government will try pushing the reform credentials of Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly, Ouattara’s potential ruling party successor.
  • Planned power tariff hikes may be delayed due to public opposition while public-sector arrears to the state power utility may go unpaid.
  • Overdue tax collection reforms, which made some initial headway under IMF pressure, could face further delays.

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