Modi-Xi summit will foster goodwill but little more

Subject

Upcoming informal summit between Indian and Chinese leaders.

Significance

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to be in India on October 11-13 for a second ‘informal’ summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The first such summit in Wuhan, China, in April 2018 prompted the two countries to tone down their differences following a border standoff the previous year. Since August this year, that rapprochement has come under pressure due to India’s constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir state, part of which is claimed by Beijing.

Impacts

• Rivalry in the Indian Ocean could become a greater source of bilateral tension, depending on government transitions in the region.
• Since Indian majors are reportedly wary of using Huawei and ZTE core equipment in 5G trials, market barriers may expand in the tech sector.
• Chinese foreign direct investment in India will be constrained compared to China’s global outbound investment.