Angolan privatisation will test Lourenco reform agenda

Significance

Lourenco’s government launched in August its flagship Privatisation Programme (PROPRIV), with 195 companies and assets set to be either fully or partially sold. With a legal framework in place promising ostensible transparency, the process is officially set to take four years.

Impacts

• UNITEL's proposed privatisation will likely create new conflict between the Dos Santos family and Lourenco after a period of accommodation.
• Ruling MPLA bureaucrats will strongly resist the (part-)privatisation of former cash cows, such as national carrier TAAG.
• Corruption in Sonangol’s external operations may have lessened under Lourenco, but political interference remains rife in its subsidiaries.
• The US authorities may pressure Luanda to use revenues from PROPRIV to settle outstanding debts to US firms.
• The government will look to the diamond sector to boost non-oil revenues, after recent institutional changes and a new tender process.