Egypt’s police will try gradually to regain strength

Subject

The role and influence of Egypt's security services.

Significance

After the 2011 revolution, the security forces found themselves marginalised, losing their political sway, largely to the benefit of the military. The army’s decision-making and economic pre-eminence has moved from strength to strength, illustrated by last month’s constitutional amendments. The security services have, however, reprised many of their previous deployments and remain vital to ensuring tight state control.

Impacts

• The political architecture and balance of power within the state are unlikely to shift in the medium term.
• Civil disobedience or any type of mobilisation will receive a harsh response.
• Ever more repressive tactics will heighten citizens’ sense of indignity.
• Without help from the military, the police would still be overwhelmed by a recurrence of protests on the scale of 2011.