Myanmar’s Rakhine rifts roil Modi’s ‘Act East’ policy

Subject

India's response to violence in Myanmar's Rakhine State.

Significance

India last month deployed additional troops along its border with Myanmar, as Myanmar’s military continues operations against the ethnic insurgent Arakan Army in Rakhine State. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Act East’ policy for greater engagement with South-east Asia features increased infrastructure investment in Myanmar, including in Rakhine.

Impacts

• Myanmar’s military will intensify operations against the Arakan Army.
• The Arakan Army may align tactically with the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, but such a tie-up would not endure for long.
• Bangladesh could come to view the Arakan Army as a useful proxy to push back on Myanmar’s military for the Rohingya crisis.