UK security role in Europe will weaken after Brexit

Subject

Brexit and international security.

Significance

Brexit in any form will make defence and security cooperation between the United Kingdom and the EU more difficult. While intelligence-sharing and security cooperation are likely to continue, even if in a more cumbersome form, there is a high likelihood of declining defence cooperation and a divergence of UK and EU defence efforts.

Impacts

• Brexit will force EU member states to build up their military.
• The United Kingdom and Ireland will strengthen security cooperation over fears of a return to violence in Northern Ireland.
• The United Kingdom may be excluded from security arrangements between the EU and external actors such as China and the United States.