Thai military will stymie post-poll democracy

Subject

Military's role in Thai politics.

Significance

The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) last week issued an order, based on Section 44 of the 2014 interim constitution, allowing the Election Commission (EC) to make changes to districts for the upcoming general election. The poll is currently targeted for February-May 2019. The recently formed Phalang Pracharat Party (PPP) will likely be a vehicle for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to retain the premiership in a post-election civilian government.

Impacts

• If a ban on political activity is lifted in mid-December, the election is very likely to take place in February-May 2019 as now pledged.
• The royal coronation will likely occur in late 2019 if the election is in February but could be in early 2019 if the poll is in May.
• The junta could use a new cybersecurity law, likely to be passed before the election, to target opponents and critics.