Oman will strengthen security amid Gulf tensions

Significance

With an ageing head of state, Oman must prepare for a post-Sultan Qaboos era, with some of its key policies at odds with those of other Gulf governments.

Impacts

• A move by Qaboos's successor to align with Saudi and UAE policy on Iran may hamper Yemen mediation efforts.
• The emergence of a new Omani leadership more sympathetic to Saudi policy would boost regional cohesion.
• An end to the blockade of Qatar would cut off a welcome source of revenue for Oman from transshipment fees.
• Deepening Saudi control of Yemen's al-Mahra province could spark another conflict if Oman chooses to challenge it.