Erdogan will not back down in row over US pastor

Significance

Although the Turkish-US alliance has had recurrent tensions and frictions during seven decades, it is experiencing troubles that might be terminal and could also undo the economic progress of the last decade and a half. The confrontation stems from Turkey’s insistence on holding a US preacher on dubious charges of terrorism, but it reflects a decade of growing political divergence and has plunged Turkey into its most serious economic crisis since 2001.

Impacts

• Turkey’s relations with the EU will continue to stagnate, and Western banks will reduce their Turkish exposure.
• China is likely to expand its presence in Turkey.
• Turkish Islam will take on a more overt public role.
• The emigration of middle-class Turks will accelerate.