Maghreb-Gulf ties will outlast tensions

Subject

Intra-regional tensions

Significance

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has quietly cancelled his annual summer holiday in Morocco. Last year, Salman reportedly spent 100 million dollars on the visit, with an entourage of nearly 1,000 people. The move is an economic blow to Morocco, which relies on the revenue and jobs generated by the visit. It signals growing Saudi-Moroccan tensions that have escalated as Morocco maintained a neutral stance vis-a-vis the Saudi-led boycott of Qatar.

Impacts

• Saudi Arabia and the UAE may condition financial aid to the Maghreb on support for their diplomatic and security priorities.
• Maghreb states are unlikely to join a conflict with Iran, should Saudi Arabia and the UAE pursue a more confrontational approach.
• Cooperation and investment between the Maghreb and the GCC will continue, but ties will be complicated by many policy differences.
• Different Gulf states’ support of rival militias will worsen chances for a political compromise in Libya.