Mesa offers best hope for Bolivia’s opposition

Subject

Opposition prospects.

Significance

Judicial measures against former President Carlos Mesa are pending a decision by the legislature, in which the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) has a two-thirds majority. Mesa is widely believed to be a candidate capable of unifying the opposition against President Evo Morales in next year’s presidential elections; the case against him is an attempt to hold him in check politically. The opposition argues that the government is abusing its influence over the judiciary for political ends.

Impacts

• Mesa lacks a party apparatus to back up a possible candidacy.
• Morales retains strong legitimacy and will go into the campaign with the advantages of incumbency.
• The MAS will find it difficult to present a radically new programme for the next period of government.
• The opposition will make full use of social media, especially targeting young and urban voters.