Jordan will seek Syrian regime help on border security

Subject

Jordan's Syria policy.

Significance

The long Syrian civil war has presented Amman with multiple security threats and a huge refugee influx that the government estimates at 1.2 million people. Jordan’s Syria policy prioritises the security of its northern border over all considerations. However, its tactics to achieve that end have changed as the government in Damascus resumes its grip on key geographic areas.

Impacts

• The timing of border normalisation will depend on Syrian military capacity and Jordanian ability to restrain its southern rebel proteges.
• Amman will come under political and financial pressure from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to resist the early resumption of trade with Damascus.
• The Jordanian business community will seek opportunities in the reconstruction of Syria.
• Amman will use a closer relationship with Moscow to deter Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups deploying near the Jordan-Syria border.