Slovak centre-right must unite to win again in 2020

Subject

The government’s poor showing in regional elections.

Significance

Elections in Slovakia’s eight regions on November 4 led to a surprise defeat for Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD) party, whose candidates lost four of the six governorships they previously held. A coalition of opposition centre-right parties, which normally only win the governorship in the most prosperous region, Bratislava, was victorious in five of the eight regions. This is the strongest indication yet that the current left-nationalist government could be replaced by such a coalition at the next parliamentary elections due in spring 2020.

Impacts

• The current governing coalition will want to avoid early elections and serve a full four-year term until March 2020.
• Fico is likely to continue promoting generous social policies to increase his political support.
• With the defeat of the far-right, Slovakia will continue to diverge from the other Central European states.
• The weakening of Smer-SD and lack of trust shown by voters leaves considerable scope for new parties to succeed in future elections.