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New Iraqi offensive may crush Kurdish hopes

Content type:: Expert Briefings
Location:: IRAQ
Keywords associated with this article:: Geographic: Iraq ME/NAF Iran Turkey United States

Topical: economy international relations politics ethnic fiscal foreign policy government military oil opposition party public sector referendum security election foreign trade terrorism
ISSN:: 2633-304X
Citation:: Oxford Analytica (2017), "New Iraqi offensive may crush Kurdish hopes", Expert Briefings.
https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB225393

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Significance

His statement, made in Iran shortly after a visit to Turkey -- two countries strongly opposed to Kurdish secession -- implicitly rejects an offer made yesterday by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to “freeze” the result. It also coincides with a new military push by Iraqi security forces and the mostly-Shia, Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) towards Fish-Khabur, a crucial position near the Iraq/Syria/Turkey border crossings and the KRG's only oil export pipeline.

Impacts

Combined with a new offensive against Islamic State (IS) in Qaim, Baghdad could control the whole Syrian border, cutting off ‘Rojava’ Kurds.
Washington is likely to object to an offensive taking Shia militias towards Fish-Khabur, within the formal boundaries of the KRI.
Abadi’s military successes could well secure his re-selection as premier following the May 2018 elections.

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Significance

Impacts

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