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Deterioration in Turkish-US ties could spiral

Monday, October 9, 2017

Significance

The announcement was swift, near-identical retaliation for the US Ankara embassy’s suspension of visa services, after the arrest of a Turkish member of the US Istanbul consulate's staff. US-Turkish relations are at a difficult point, with US prosecutors having charged former Turkish Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan and three others with breaking US sanctions against Iran’s nuclear programme.

Impacts

  • Deteriorating US-Turkish relations would make it difficult to use US bases in Turkey to support anti-IS operations in Syria.
  • Reimposed sanctions would limit the ability of refiner Tupras, owned by Koc Holding, to import crude from Iran, now Turkey’s main supplier.
  • If Tupras were held in breach of sanctions it would affect the owners' other business interests.

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