Outlook for a Rakhine solution in Myanmar is poor

Significance

Another 20,000 were gathering near the Bangladesh-Myanmar border yesterday following Rohingya militia attacks on police and military installations. The situation in Rakhine State was already tense: the same group attacked nine police posts in October 2016, prompting a crackdown by Myanmar’s military. A further security operation is now under way, posing more social and political dangers. An estimated 400 have died so far in renewed fighting.

Impacts

• International aid agencies in Rakhine may have to withdraw their personnel.
• Myanmar’s neighbours will experience further refugee inflows.
• Instability may threaten Myanmar’s place in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
• Other Myanmar ethnic minorities will see even less reason to trust the military, further impeding the Panglong peace process.
• The Rakhine controversy will likely cause further rifts within ASEAN.