Amman will quietly boost cooperation with Damascus

Significance

The US-Russian-Jordanian July 9 agreement on a ceasefire in southern Syria has achieved calm in the area for now. The southernmost ‘de-escalation zone’ on the Syria-Jordan border is part of a wider normalisation of the prospect of continued rule by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Impacts

• Renewed trade with Damascus could facilitate the recovery of Jordan’s suffering mining sector.
• Jordan will use improved stability to promote tourism, reaching out to Asian as well as European markets.
• Amman’s role in negotiating the southern Syria ceasefire will cement its good standing in Washington.
• Jordan’s internal stability will be vulnerable to fluctuations in Israel-Palestinian tensions.