FARC peace deal will survive Colombian election

Significance

President Juan Manuel Santos described the historic milestone as “the last breath of the conflict with the FARC” and tweeted that the country could now begin “the construction of peace and of a better Colombia”. With Santos’s term due to end next year, however, the task of overseeing the challenges of reintegration and peace-building will be left in the hands of his successor..

Impacts

• The FARC is unlikely ever again to constitute an existential security threat to the Colombian state.
• The risk of criminal activity involving FARC dissidents is highest in the departments of Meta, Guaviare and Norte de Santander.
• Continued disputes between guerrilla and government negotiators make an imminent peace deal with the ELN improbable.
• The deteriorating socio-political situation in Venezuela represents a serious threat to Colombian security.