South Africa's ANC factionalisation will hasten

Significance

Khoza has openly called on ANC MPs to vote against President Jacob Zuma in a parliamentary motion of no confidence scheduled for August 8. Despite many ANC members privately agreeing with Khoza, most ruling party lawmakers have kept silent ahead of the crucial vote. Instead, the race to succeed Zuma as leader at December's national conference is prompting fierce internal contestation among the party and its alliance structures, threatening to undermine its 2019 general election performance.

Impacts

• Intra-ANC violence could grow in the run up to, and after, December’s national conference.
• Ongoing corruption allegations involving officials at state-owned power utility Eskom could implicate members of the government.
• Relations between the minister of mines and the Chamber of Mines are likely to deteriorate further following new government restrictions.