South Africa's ANC could alienate poorer voters

Significance

The current contract is due to expire on March 31, with no replacement in place. Minister of Social Development Bathabile Dlamini and the South African Social Security Agency (SASSA) wish to sign a new deal with current provider Cash Paymaster Services (CPS), but they will need approval from both the National Treasury and the Court after a previous contract with CPS was deemed unconstitutional.

Impacts

• A delay in grant payments could spark widespread popular protests and social unrest.
• Divisions between National Treasury and the executive will widen ahead of the ANC's June policy conference.
• Dlamini is unlikely to be sacked outright but may be moved to another ministerial post in a cabinet reshuffle.