South Korea approaches political turning point

Subject

The outlook for South Korea's domestic politics and international relationships.

Significance

Like the rest of the world, South Korea worries about how the unpredictable actions of US President Donald Trump's administration might affect it. At home, meanwhile, the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye, which she strongly contests, creates a power vacuum and prolongs manifold uncertainties, including when the country's next president will be elected and who it will be.

Impacts

• If the Constitutional Court reinstates Park, hitherto peaceful mass protests could turn violent.
• Bonhomie with US Defense Secretary James Mattis may not last if Park's successor tries to re-engage Pyongyang.
• Missile defence has been mishandled, but deployment still looks likely this year.
• China's blatant bullying over missile defence dashes prospects of Beijing turning anti-US sentiment in South Korea to its advantage.