French parliament, not president, may guide next steps

Significance

He is weakened by allegations that his wife Penelope and two of their children were employed for years by him, which is legal, and received nearly 1 million euros (1.08 million dollars) without doing any work. Should he withdraw, centrist independent Emmanuel Macron has a far greater likelihood of winning -- despite having no party and (as yet) offering no specific policies.

Impacts

• The psychological impact of a Le Pen victory on France, Europe and global markets would be seismic.
• Le Pen’s dispute with the European Parliament over misuse of funds is unlikely to damage her election prospects.
• French ten-year government-bond yields are likely to remain high and even rise in the run-up to the second round.
• The Socialists face a period of political wilderness and even a split, with one group aligning with the Greens and the other with Macron.
• If US President Donald Trump continues to create uncertainty, French voters may prefer political stability and the EU over populism.