Next Malaysian election likely to see BN win

Significance

This follows former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad launching the Malaysian United Native Party (Bersatu) on January 15. As a member of the primary opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan (PH), Bersatu could challenge the governing coalition led by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) for the important Malay-Muslim vote, UMNO's political base. Both developments come as speculation grows that Prime Minister Najib Razak will call an early general election.

Impacts

• Early polls may boost domestic stocks, particularly in construction, but will not stabilise the ringgit.
• Sarawak Chief Minister Adenan Satem's recent death could bolster the Sarawak autonomy movement.
• Legal amendments to enact Islamic criminal punishments are unlikely to be voted on pre-election.
• An Anwar pardon is unlikely; if it happened pre-election the opposition could benefit but still face structural problems.
• Opposition legal efforts to block the Electoral Commission's constituency re-delineation will likely fail.