IMF loan conditions will worsen Egyptian discontent

Significance

The government's struggle to stave off economic collapse has become increasingly frantic, as inflation has surged, the gap between the official and black market exchange rate has reached or exceeded 100%, and consumers have difficulty finding basics such as sugar and rice.

Impacts

• Increased incidents of popular protests and political dissent reflect worsening economic conditions.
• Measures to be taken as part of the IMF deal, notably devaluation and further subsidy cuts, could exacerbate social and political tensions.
• Sisi will deflect some of the blame for the economic crisis onto the government and the central bank.
• If the government survives this crisis, the economy could recover in the medium term.