Myanmar government-military ties could be at risk

Significance

The response underlines the military's continued internal security role but, given that the restive areas are home to large Rohingya populations, also highlights residual political sensitivity about the military's position and the importance of effective government-military relations.

Impacts

• An immediate trigger for civil-military frictions could be a breakdown in peace negotiations with ethnic minority groups.
• The government will struggle to convince military leaders that wide concessions to armed ethnic groups are needed.
• Centralisation of power within the NLD will hamper junior civilian leaders gaining experience of working with the military.
• In time, the military's economic influence will be politically problematic for the NLD.