Protest groups signal shift in Middle East politics

Subject

Civil society protest movements in Iraq and Lebanon.

Significance

Protest movements in the Middle East have been curtailed severely by retrenched autocratic governments and civil wars since the Arab uprisings in 2011. With their relatively open political systems, Lebanon and Iraq never participated in these protests fully. However, over the past year they have seen a resurgence in grassroots politics that could influence civil society across the region.

Impacts

• Protest movements provide an outlet for popular frustration; their repression increases the risk of longer-term political instability.
• Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco have the most favourable conditions for a revival of civil society protest movements.
• Such movements could play a larger role in Yemen, Libya and Syria after conflicts have ended.
• In the longer run, these movements could benefit business in the region by driving efforts to fight corruption and improve transparency.