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German-Turkish tensions put Merkel under pressure

Thursday, August 4, 2016

Significance

Relations between Germany and Turkey have taken a turn for the worse since the attempted coup on July 15-16. Faced with a widening crackdown on the Turkish opposition, a spillover of tensions into Germany and signs of a party rebellion against her migrant policy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel cannot afford to push for new concessions to preserve the controversial migrant deal.

Impacts

  • Only partial suspension of the deal, with Turkey continuing to prevent mass migration, would contain tensions and limit pressure on the EU.
  • Upcoming elections in two German states could see the populist AfD gain votes, strengthening Merkel's critics.
  • A tougher stance on Tu rkey may increase abstention among German-Turkish voters, hurting primarily the Social Democrats and the Greens.

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