Turkey crisis is new blow to Saudi regional ambitions

Significance

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states' ties with Turkey have improved considerably since 2014, driven by changing regional geopolitics. Sharp divisions that emerged in the wake of the Arab uprisings over political Islam's role in the region have decreased as GCC capitals have become increasingly preoccupied with the perceived threat from Iran.

Impacts

• Sunni Arab policies towards Syrian rebel groups will fragment further, making regime gains more likely.
• A more volatile and inward-looking Turkey will affect attempts to counter Islamic State group (ISG).
• It would also slow US efforts to share responsibility for Gulf security with other NATO allies.