Saudi escalation threatens Lebanon's stability

Significance

The Saudi government confirmed last week that it had stopped all military aid to Lebanon, including previously agreed deals aimed at equipping the LAF in its fight to secure the country's borders with Syria. Further moves have been threatened as Riyadh responds to the growing influence of Hezbollah and its Iranian backer over Lebanon's government.

Impacts

• The army will be weakened by the absence of the new equipment, but not decisively so.
• The economy will suffer from the withdrawal of Saudi funds and interests, and the social crisis will worsen.
• Iranian-Syrian dominance in Lebanon would be a major political setback for Saudi Arabia in its regional contest with Iran.
• The risk of instability and local-level conflict will increase, raising concern in Europe.