Syrian regime poised to defeat rebels in Aleppo

Significance

The United States, Russia and other international powers agreed a cessation of hostilities in Munich last week, scheduled to begin on February 18. However, the deal requires confirmation by Syrian rebel factions and the Syrian government. It comes amid substantial regime gains in Aleppo province that lay the ground for the retaking of rebel-held eastern Aleppo city.

Impacts

• Russia and Iran are likely to succeed in their plan to transform the conflict from a civil war to a manageable insurgency.
• Saudi Arabia and Turkey are unlikely to intervene directly to support the rebels; but the risk of miscalculation and escalation remains.
• Turkey is likely to relent to international pressure to allow refugees over the border.