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Myanmar peace effort could falter after March

Content type:: Expert Briefings
Location:: MYANMAR
Keywords associated with this article:: Geographic: Myanmar AP

Topical: politics arms border conflict civil war constitution decentralisation ethnic gender government integration military natural resources opposition party peacekeeping policy reform sanctions security summit talks welfare economy social
ISSN:: 2633-304X
Citation:: Oxford Analytica (2016), "Myanmar peace effort could falter after March", Expert Briefings.
https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB208083

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Subject

Prospects for the peace process with ethnic groups under the incoming National League for Democracy government.

Significance

Peace negotiations between the government, ethnic armed groups (EAGs) and the military (Tatmadaw) were discussed when National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi met Tatmadaw chief Min Aung Hlaing on January 25. This followed the Union Peace Conference (UPC) round held oon January 12-16, which also involved outgoing President Thein Sein, and which marked Suu Kyi's official debut in the peace process.

Impacts

Progressing peace in Rakhine State could help Myanmar reduce Islamic State group threats.
To protect its interests, the military could stymie peace talks by restarting conflict in ethnic areas.
The NLD may soften its stance on federalism to keep the military aboard, but likely thus alienating ethnic groups.

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