Anti-FN strategy rows to dominate France 2017 run-up

Significance

The regional elections are the last electoral test before the 2017 presidential and parliamentary polls. The apparent switchback in results reflects the fact that the FN is on the rise in the electorate overall, but is contained for now by political institutions and anti-FN voting. The two major terrorist attacks in 2015 have simultaneously increased popular fear and FN-friendly demands for security, and strengthened the legitimacy of France's republican order and thus the Hollande presidency.

Impacts

• Mainstream elites may become freshly complacent over socio-economic conditions, although they may also see the FN vote as a 'last warning'.
• The FN may gain from staying out of office and attacking 'globalist' and 'cosmopolitan' elites, especially if they form an anti-FN front.
• Hollande and Valls could consider extending the state of emergency, although some on the left see this helping the FN.
• Owing to the state of emergency, Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian can stay in post while serving as Brittany's new leader.
• Local nationalists' win in Corsica may trigger a renewed debate on independence or increased autonomy for the island.